Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the announcement of a new comprehensive peace framework for resolving the conflict appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Peace Talks and Military Action
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Significant resources is expended on restraining particular approaches. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the primary tool for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from enemy soil, a ability afforded by timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely provided by allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a automatic firearm fired at a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the shots failed to hit the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours encapsulated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a dependence that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the near term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from American leadership generated strong feelings, controversy and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. American leadership works based on a premise familiar among international relations experts: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not evolve additionally in its favour in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be multiple initiatives to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing people and territory but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not move to homefront challenges. And although their task will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Summary and Prospects
It took a only one week to terminate the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show particular unwillingness to change the course of events, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require continued Western support.
